Playoff Predictions - Round 2

Round 2 - and all spreads are over a TD. That makes for some tough picking. They can't all cover ... or can they? Let's preview each game with my prediction of the final score. A common theme to remember though - the home teams were all better during the season, and had an extra week to rest and prepare. Here we go:

Seattle @ Green Bay (-8), Saturday, 4pm
"Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's coooold out there today." Forecast is for temperatures in the low 20s, high teens with possible snow, and it'll get colder as the game goes deeper into the night. That's an advantage for the Packers, since they're used to it ... although Favre struggled mightily against the Bears in the cold just a few weeks ago. Seattle's big win over the Redskins was deceptive though. While they did blow them out, the offense struggled and needed 2 defensive scores to push that margin up. And while the defense looked good towards the end of the game, Todd Collins is no Brett Favre and had them in position to go up 17-13 if his kicker hadn't taken his Choke Pills that morning. Holmgren might know Farve, but I don't think that can come into play. Let's not forget that Seattle is much better at home (losses on the road include Arizona, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Carolina & Atlanta - although that was week 17). I look for Green Bay to cover. Final Score: The Pack 27, Hawks 14.

Jacksonville @ New England (-13), Saturday, 8pm
Jacksonville is the sexy upset pick this week, but I must warn you - there is a lot of misguided opinions and stats being thrown around. Check out Jeremy Green's ESPN post here: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs07/columns/story?columnist=green_j... – he’s the leader of the "Jax will win" crowd. Eric Wilbur on boston.com pointed out the biggest misstep in Green's argument, which was that the Jags would stop the run, forcing the Pats to pass, and that somehow being an advantage for Jacksonville. Um, one, they won't have to force the Pats to pass; they'll go out and sling it all day anyways, and two, the Pats have arguably the greatest passing offense ever. Wouldn’t you want the Pats to run the ball if you’re Jacksonville? I can’t wait to watch the MVP cut Jacksonville's average secondary apart like a surgeon. Another common argument I've seen is that the Jags played a tougher division, so their 11-5 record (which is always footnoted that it would have 12-4 if they needed to win their last game too) is just as meaningful because they did it in the tough AFC South while the Pats played in the weak AFC East. That's skewing the stats to the extreme. THE PATS HAVEN’T LOST THIS YEAR PEOPLE! Here are a few more schedule stats to chew on. Jacksonville's Strength of Schedule (SOS) was .512; New England's SOS was .462. However, Jacksonville's Strength of Victory (SOV) was .460; New England’s SOV was .462 (since the Pats went undefeated). And if you take out the 2 games against the terrible Dolphins, their SOS & SOV go up to .518. Take out those other 2 games against the awful Jets, and those go up to .561. The Pats played a much tougher schedule than they get credit for (because they beat 2 bad teams twice each), and beat 6 playoff teams in the process. Two more HUGE factors: a bye week for the Pats and a home game for the Pats. Add all this up, sprinkle in a little "Jacksonville is a tough matchup" media hype, and this has a classic, Belichick-ian "EFF-YOU" blowout written all over it. Lay those points, baby! Final Score: Pats 38, Jax 14.

San Diego @ Indy (-8.5), Sunday, 1pm
I can't even write to much about this. Norv Turner is a terrible coach, and despite covering that 10 point spread against Tennessee, that game was a lot closer than the final score indictated. They looked terrible. And now they face Peyton Manning & the Colts offense, which is roughly 847 times better than Tennessee's stinkfest of an offense. A rested & prepared Tony Dungy squad at their home dome - I see this getting ugly. Final Score: Colts 41, Bolts 10.

NY Giants @ Dallas (-7.5), Sunday, 4pm
So I've predicted 3 straight covers. Can I predict a 4th? I am leaning towards the G-men to cover the spread only because I can't see all 4 home favorites putting up a TD on each. But 3 should, so if you want to play it say bet on all four, take your loss on one but win the other 3. I am leaning towards the Boys because everyone and there degenerate gambling brother thinks the G-men are better than they really are and taking the cover, and going against popular opinion is a good pick, because bookies are rich and keep taking bets for a reason. But it all comes down to this - will TO be playing, and will he be effective? If the answer is yes, Dallas covers. If the answer is no, the G-men cover (or possibly even steal one). So with an effective TO: Boys 30, G-men 20; without: Boys 23, G-men 20. Don't place that bet until Sunday at 3:55.

That raps it up. I’m still predicting an 18-0 Patriots vs. Again Favre-led Packers Super Bowl, which would be a dream matchup for the NFL & Fox, as it could break viewership records across the board. Until next time ...

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