Oh boy - playoff time! Time to make money betting against bad QBs on the road. Let that be the cardinal law. Let's break down the 1st round match-ups:
Redskins at Seahawks (-3.5) (Sat, 4:15)
Look out for the red-hot Redskins! Todd Collins is a savvy vet that doesn't make mistakes - at least that's the line you're being fed. If Todd Collins is that guy, how come he spent 10 years between starts? How come his career numbers could be favorably described as "terrible?" I realize that there is the Sean Taylor factor for this team, and that they are built for the playoffs (good running game, good defense), but do you really think they're going into Seattle and taking that game? Seattle wins by 10, aided by there 12th man and Holmgren leaning on his strong passing game to set up the run. I strongly advise taking Seattle to win outright on the money line and would endorse laying those points.
Jaguars (-2) at Steelers (Sat, 8:00)
Wow - a road favorite! That's extremely rare in the playoffs. It kills me to say it, but it's probably a little low. It's dangerous going against home 'dogs. But in this case, we talking about the Steelers, a team I dissected a month ago before their "showdown" with the Pats. And this team also lost at home already to these same Jags, except that edition of the Steelers had Willie Parker, who is now out for the season. Smart money is on the Jags for the win.
Giants at Bucs (-3) (Sun, 1:00)
This is the toughest pick of the 1st round - mainly because each team possesses a strong Jeckel-and-Hyde complex & has injury problems. Are we going to see the Eli Manning from the 1st half against the Pats or the 2nd half? Are we going to see a healthy Jeff Garcia playing well or a banged-up guy getting hurt and the dangerous Luke McCown making an appearance (that's dangerous to his own team, by the way). Tough, tough pick. G-men with the points is the way I'm leaning, since the Bucs are coming out of the terrible NFC South. This game also has the under written all over it.
Titans at Chargers (-9) (Sun, 4:30)
Nice line by the spreadmakers in Vegas; I'm 99% sure the Chargers will be heading off to Indy at the game's conclusion. But 9 points is tough. Do the Chargers blow them out, as they should, because of their vastly superior talent? Or do the Titans hang around and keep it close because of their vastly superior head coach? Do you really want to lay 9 points on a Norv Turner-coached team? Sadly, I think I might, especially if Vince Young IS playing, as the bad QBs on the road cardinal law will be in effect.
I'll be back with more next week for the Divisional Round games - but just so I can say I told you so, all four teams with byes this week will be winning next week. I fully expect a Colts @ Pats blood feud runneth over for the AFC Championship and a Packers @ Cowboys NFC Championship. And the NFL powers-at-be couldn't be more happier if that's the case, because they will be guaranteed a Super Matchup for the Super Bowl. And obviously, I'm predicting the Patriots finishing off their 19-0 campaign over Brett Favre & the Packers (despite 99% of the country outside of New England pulling for good-ole Fav-rah).
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I'm going to predict the Boys get upset by the G-Men...but yeah can't wait for that Colts v Pats game....undoubtedly it'll be the most watched game of all time.
So you're predicting that Eli & the G-men win two straight playoff games, on the road, against rested opponents? That's a bold, bold prediction. I'll eat my face if the G-men make the NFC Championship.
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I'm going to predict the Boys get upset by the G-Men...but yeah can't wait for that Colts v Pats game
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