Sports Hubris Annual Fantasy Baseball Value Rankings

Here we go! Baseball is just around the corner, and that means your fantasy draft is even closer. The game has taken off in recent years, and that means the guy in your league that didn’t know how to pronounce Chone Figgins two years ago can now rattle off everything from his BABIP to his birth weight. Most of you will go buy the latest magazine with the flashiest cover of your favorite player and realize this “expert” ranks his players just like every other “experts” picks, but if you want to separate yourself from the pack you have to reevaluate your personal rankings. If you don’t you’ll end up with last years consensus “sleeper” pick Dave Bush.

A few fantasy baseball guidelines.

Don’t just show up with a sheet of rankings; spend a few hours coming up with a strategy, and then think of the best way to implement it. If you believe Pitching is deep this year then find the bargain pitchers and target offense early.

Adjust for your particular league. Most guides are for vanilla leagues, and can completely send your draft out of whack, because your league is formatted differently. If your team uses K’s against hitters as part of the scoring system make sure you adjust Ryan Howard accordingly.

Don’t punt a category. If you go into a draft planning on punting a certain category it could really end up hurting your draft. What if someone else is planning the same thing? Use the draft to determine if a category is worth ditching. For instance say Bobby Jenks is going in the 4th round, that’s a tell tale sign that saves are at a premium, which means greater value can be found elsewhere. Don’t take Todd Jones over Magglio Ordonez, let saves go. The same people that overpaid for saves earlier will be looking to trade them down the road on the cheap.

Get value early then focus on team needs with the middling players. Early in the draft it’s essential to get the best possible player. Say you take Jimmy Rollins late in the first round, and Jose Reyes is still available on the wrap around; don’t be afraid to pick him. If he’s the best player available take him don’t worry about rounding your team out until the later rounds.

Value is key. So to help you followers of The Dude out I’ll be listing my top five best values at each position. We’ll assume a 12 man 5x5 league, so adjust for your own customized league. I’ll be giving you my first dose of five at first base.

1B

1.) Lance Berkmen
Lance saw a drop off in nearly every fantasy category last year, and is on the wrong side of 30, but he’s my pick as the best value at first base. Depending on your league he may fall into the 4th round or later. Now he’s not likely to out slug Howard or out earn Pujols, but if you have your eye on speed or pitching in those first couple rounds he’s a pretty prize that late. His first half last year was painful at times, but he returned to form late hitting .290+ in the second half, and no one thinks he’s on the decline. He’ll be a consistent hitter for all of 2008, and may very well have a MVP type run left in him. As an added bonus if Morneau is still sitting around later than he should grab him up, because you can slide Berkmen over to the OF.

2.) Justin Morneau
On one hand you have a 27 years young power slugging former MVP and on the other you have a somewhat raw inconsistent player on what will be a very bad team in the Twins this year. The value comes in how far he’s falling. One horrendous half just a year removed from his MVP run and he’s almost out of the top ten 1st basemen in most “experts” rankings. You don’t want to let a competitor beat you on this value. Even if your first base slot is filled plug this guy in your UTIL and let him mash.
Projected round: 5

3.) Helton
After years of being misconstrued as a top flight fantasy guy Helton has fallen considerably. Fallen to the point he’s still being incorrectly ranked. Take him late and cheap and you’ll be justly rewarded. At the very least you have a .310++ hitter who will have plenty of RBI and scoring opportunities.
Projected round: 11

4.) Giambi
Not much to say here except if he’s healthy and he gets 400+ AB’s you get 30+ HR real cheap. Pick him for your bench and play him when he’s healthy if nothing else start him when he hits against righties at the Stadium.
Projected round: 20

5.) Pujols
He’s a first round pick regardless, so the value in the price isn’t there, but he’s seen his comfy spot atop the heap of fantasy players slowly erode away. When pick number four goes to Johan and you can get Pujols at 5 or later that’s a steal. He’s one of two offensive guys that can single handedly carry a fantasy roster…the other is going first overall.
Projected round: 1

2B

1.) Rickie Weeks
He’s Brandon Phillips ’07 potential at about 70 picks later. An injury slowed him down considerably last year, but pencil him in for at least a 20-20 at 2B.
Projected Round: 8

2.) Howie Kendrick
Great hitting potential, but he has yet to put together a full season. He’s an excellent sleeper candidate, so he may come off the board early. Be patient and if he comes to you he’s a great value.
Projected Round: 13

3.) Ian Kinsler
He’s another 20-20 candidate at 2B, but he comes a round earlier than Weeks and I’m not sure that’s even warranted. Still a much better value than Brandon Phillips.
Projected Round: 7

4.) Polanco
He hit .342 last year, and while other 2B can be AVG killers he can give your team a much needed B-12 shot.
Porjected Round: 16

5.) Robinson Cano
There are two top tiers of 2 baggers this year. The first is Utley the second is Phillips, Upton, Cano and Roberts. You can make a case for any one of these guys in the 2nd tier to out earn the other, so don’t follow the guides and take Phillips and Upton early. Sit on Cano a few rounds after those guys go and use those earlier picks to gain an advantage.
Projected Round: 4

SS
1.) Reyes
The top tier of SS is massive with Hanley, Rollins and Reyes forming the new trinity. Any one of these guys is a justified first round pick, but for various reasons Reyes is a true steal late in the first round. Hanley has lots of hype and is going top 5 in almost every draft. Rollins is sitting pretty in the late first, but Reyes is jumping around anywhere from 2nd overall to end of the first. Cross your fingers and hope that late first round pick brings his kind of value.
Projected Round: 1

2.) Michael Young
The model of consistency. Healthy and hitting is his motto, and if you take your chances on a declining and post injury Tejada in an earlier round than Young you’ll be kicking yourself later.
Projected Round: 8

3.) Renteria
Here’s hoping his return to the AL is more enjoyable than last time. If it is he doesn’t hurt you in any category but power.
Projected Round: 13

4.) J.J. Hardy
It’s not how you start it’s how you finish…it may be a nice saying in real sports, but for Roto purposes getting those HR early or late makes no difference. Take his 20+ jacks and be content.
Projected Round: 19

5.) Peralta
He’s hit 20+ HR in 2 of the last 3 seasons, and is only 25. Pay for the 20 and pray for 30.
Projected Round: 19

3B
1-2.) Garrett Atkins & Aramis Ramirez
Overshadowed most of the season these two put up numbers that will allow you to confidently call their name anytime after the 2nd round, but for some reason they can’t even crack the top 5 3rd basemen in most “experts” guides.
Projected Round: 5

3.) A-Rod
He’s the number one overall pick and top dollar earner this year, and it couldn’t be more deserving. He’s so good everyone with the #2 pick feels cheated as there is no clear cut answer to A-Rods fantasy prowess.
Projected Round: 1

4.) Mike Lowell
Just because he had a year no one was expecting, and just because everyone says it won’t happen again doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take a late round flier on him.
Projected Round: 10

5.) Troy Glaus
He has enough left in his tank to surprise a few people, and don’t be surprised if NL pitching is just the right grade of fuel to light that fire.
Projected Round: 21

C
1.) Salty
Don’t pay for a name *cough* Varitek *cough* Give Salty a full year in Texas and he won’t disappoint.
Projected round: 15

2-4.) Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer
These guys are the cream of the crop, and their value comes in the fact that if you get one of them you won’t have to overpay for the likes of McCann, Posada and Johjima. While the latter trio are solid contributors once those top 3 are off the board you’ll be seeing those middling three go sooner than they should, and you don’t want to be left with Greg Zaun again do you?
Projected Round: 3, 4, 5

5.) Johjima
The cheapest of the middling 3, and just as likely to earn the same as Posada and McCann.
Projected Round: 12

OF

1.) Soriano
Wake up “experts” the man is a year removed from 40-40 and you’re going to drop him to late in the 2nd round? Recognize the value and embrace it.
Projected Round: 2

2.) Abreu
Forget the power outage. In that lineup and on that team he’ll provide enough numbers to make you smile.
Projected Round: 5/6

3.) Dye
Awful first half ruined his season, but let it give a boost to your team in the later rounds this year.
Projected Round: 14

4.) Andruw Jones
New team in a very promising lineup…Pierre, Furcal, Martin, Kent, Loney, Kemp. Jones just may peak at the right time for the Dodgers. Also for All-Stars who have the worse year in their career, while still young see Beckett.
Projected Round: 10

5.) Michael Bourn
Last Year…19 SB in 120 AB’s. Look for those AB’s to jump, and those SB’s to skyrocket.
Projected Round: 18

SP
1-3.) Lackey, Oswalt, Zambrano
They can anchor a staff and you don’t need to spend a top 4 draft pick to get them. Consistent aces aren’t easy to come by, so make sure you get at least one.
Projected Round: 4/5

4.) Jeremy Bonderman
Highly touted ace, who had an excellent season last year erased by a horrendous second half. Unfortunately for pitching a 3.48 ERA followed by a 7.38 kills even a fantasy season. Draft him and praise him when he comes storming out of the gate then flip him for his true value.
Projected Round: 14

5.) Oliver Perez
He’ll be 27 this year! He has more experience than most his age, and you can’t teach heat. DO NOT reach for him. Everyone and their brother has been burned by him before, but be patient and wait for the round where he attains max value.
Projected Round: 13

6.) Brandon Webb
Nothing but great contribution from this master of the sinker. He’s the ace on a staff built to pitch, and that may keep him fresh all season. I believe the best is yet to come, but he’s a great value if he can slip just a bit.
Projected Round: 3

Well there you have it. I’m not going to mess with relievers, because they’re a whole different animal in every draft. Just pick your spots wisely and you’ll find value at closers throughout the draft. Let’s put together the all fantasy value team and then I’ll close out the preview with my picks that offer the least value.

All Value Team

C Salty 15th round
1B Lance Berkman 3rd round
2B Rickie Weeks 8th round
3B Aramis Ramirez 5th round
SS Jose Reyes 1st round
OF Soriano 2nd round
OF Andruw Jones 10th round
OF Michael Bourn 18th round
OF Jermaine Dye 14th round
UTIL Todd Helton 11th round

SP Lackey 4th round
SP Oliver Perez 13th round

Not a bad squad huh? Rounds 6, 7, 9, 12 are unaccounted for, so fill your pitching accordingly. Feel free to tinker, and I hope you enjoyed my advice. I’ll leave you with my picks that offer the least value.

1B
Youkilis
He’s sitting there waiting for you to fill up your UTIL slot or cap off that 12th teams 1st basemen, but when veterans like Delgado and Sexson are still available he’s a big reach.

2B
Brandon Phillips
Going just around the 20th overall mark in most “expert” drafts. As noted above he’s just as likely to under earn Upton/Cano/Roberts as he is to out earn them. It is my distinct opinion he is not a 30/30 threat at second base. The man hit .263 against righties last year. How can he be anywhere near top 20?

SS
Derek Jeter
He’s a consistent fantasy contributor. The problem isn’t that he’s declining it’s just that the 3 other SS above him have drastically separated themselves fantasy wise. Jeter at 4th is just a consolation prize, and a costly one for where he’s going to be drafted. Do yourself a favor if you’re thinking of drafting Jeter just suck it up and take one of the trinity in the first, and thank me later.

3B
Chipper
Excellent production when healthy. The problem is he’s older and still injury prone. The “experts” have him going before Atkins/Ramirez. Don’t make the same mistake.

C
Varitek
Unless he’s going to come to your house and give you a fantasy pep talk in August don’t draft him. You could blindly throw a dart at a bunch of C’s names and find a better fantasy option.

OF
Sox OF
The sox have a nice setup for the real game, but in the realm of fantasy they have a problem. Look for Drew, Coco, and Ellsbury to share pt. Manny had some power drop off and is quite the risqué pick for where he’ll be drafted. Ellsbury is the true value, but if he doesn’t notch 450+ AB’s he may not realize that value.

SP
Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling
The day of the dominating old pitcher is over. These guys will not be the spark you need to infuse your pitching. Take a gamble on a wilder younger livelier arm than one of these old foags.

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