You want picks? We got 'em.
Everyone considers the first few weeks the toughest just because we're picking off of last year's results and what's now on paper. Fortunately for us, so isn't Vegas, and your friendly neighborhood offshore bookie. This gives the common man a few key advantages.
1.) The bookies not only out muscle you should you not pay up, but they outhink you. They have consultants, who have consultants, who have brain trusts just crunching numbers and dissecting patterns to take your money. You have your gut, and in some cases it's a pretty big gut, but it doesn't stack up. Sounds like a disadvantage right? Well it isn't, because that well oiled bookie machine isn't up and running for week 1. Take advantage of your gut and make some cash.
2.) Hype. Bookies have to account for hype. You don't. Stick to your gut, and let the hype pass you by.
Let's get to the picks.
New Orleans (-5) over Minnesota
Lay the points. The Super Bowl team never loses this game, and as good as the Vikings with Favre were last year it was the ceiling. Don't expect anything out of the Vikings passing game this week, and if the Saints stake an early lead it'll be over quickly for Minny.
Kansas City (+4.5) over San Diego
San Diego wins, but can't quite cover. I have to give the Chargers time to build momentum with that new fangled offense before I can lay 4.5 on the road to an improved division foe on the road.
Washington (+3.5) over Dallas
The Big D stands for "dreadful" in the road opener. Hype is enshrouding both teams in different directions. Avoid the hype and take the points.
Arizona over St. Louis (+4)
Last year AZ is probably a 13 pt favorite in this game. Now they hardly register a threat to the lowly Rams. I give the nod to the athletic Cardinal defense in this one.
San Francisco over Seattle (+3)
Division favorite 49'ers take on the rePete's Hawks. How many teams will Pete Carroll destroy in his career 5? I'll take the over on that, and I'll take the Niners to cover.
Green Bay over Philadelphia (+3)
Kolb needed a better tune up for a game this big. I can see the Eagles taking this game in mid October, but there are too many question marks heading into this game not to give it to the proven squad. Packers win by a touchdown.
Tennessee (-6.5) over Oakland
Chris Johnson is going to be worthy of a first overall fantasy selection this week. Vince Young will take care of the football, and the suddenly viable Raiders will fall short on the road. Not an easy win for the Titans, but they'll control throughout , and capitalize on the Raiders trying to play catch up.
Cleveland over Tampa Bay (-3)
I like Jerome Harrison for this game. He's worth 4 points.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Atlanta
Close game I'll take the points and put my faith in the Steeler's D over Mattie Ice's supposed turf toe setback of last year.
Carolina over N.Y. Giants (-7)
My guts exploding on this one. Coupled with the NY hype and I'm licking my chops at those 7 points. Giants probably win, but it won't be by 8. Matt Moore will lead a solid attack over a lackluster Giants defense.
Cincinnati over New England (-4.5)
This is a stay away for betting purposes. I like the Pats to win, but I'm taking the points in what should be a close game if the Bengals play smart and control the clock with their running game.
Jacksonville (-3) over Denver
Garrard plays well at home. Denver is in the dumps. My analysis on this game is as subapar as the ratings will be.
Indianapolis over Houston (+2.5)
Houston has hype. Indy starts every season like 8-0. Manning is an ultra competitor and he's not losing the first game after a super bowl loss.
Detroit over Chicago (-6.5)
I'm not giving 6.5 points to anyone Chicago plays. Detroit has a nice young nucleus, and I wouldn't be surprised if they come out feeling pretty confident and keep this game close.
Miami over Buffalo (+3)
Buffalo at home isn't usually a fun game for Miami, but it's still warm out, and Miami is a playoff contender. Look for an all around awesome performance from the Miami offense as everyone gets involved and trounces the Bills.
N.Y. Jets (-2.5) over Baltimore
This is the premier matchup of the week. Two elite squads battle for early bragging rights to the AFC, and they will brag. The Jets defense will prove too much for Flacco, who hasn't quite had the keys to his new weapons long enough to reach their full potential. I give the nod to the J-E-T-S at home, but come playoffs it could be a different story.
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This is the premier matchup of the week. Two elite squads battle for early bragging rights to the AFC, and they will brag
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Week 1
Thu, Sep 08 Time (ET) Top Passer Top Rusher Top Receiver
NO 34 @ GB 42 Final NO Drew Brees: 419 Yds GB James Starks: 57 Yds NO Devery Henderson: 100 Yds
Sun, Sep 11 Time (ET) Top Passer Top Rusher Top Receiver
ATL 12 @ CHI 30.
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