NBA Playoffs’ Conference Semifinals Preview
I'm putting the finishing touches to this article in as I watch my Celtics beating up on the Hawks, with the only possible feelings being relief if they win or extreme anger if they lose. At least in this game, the refs have FINALLY swallowed their whistles and let the guys on the court play. The officiating in this series has been so terrible it's the only reason I'm sitting here stressed on a Sunday afternoon. I apologize in advance if I need to write a Hawks-Cavilers preview because I will be a raving lunatic writing that. And this would probably be my last basketball article because it would be really tough to watch hoops if the Celtics don't hold to this game.
Eastern Conference Preview
(1) Boston Celtics (66-16)
(4) Cleveland Cavilers (45-37)
Season Series: They split the season series, each winning two games
Analysis: Phew! The Celtics just put away the scrappy Hawks - this series had no business going past 4 games, but the officials did their part with some of the worst homer calls in Atlanta (the Hawks had a 97-68 FTA advantage in their wins); but more importantly, Doc Rivers got outcoached by Mike Freaking Woodson. The Cetlics lost the 3 close games - they're going to have more close games if they continue to advance, so that is a bit troubling.
The Cavs blew Game 5 at home (up 5 with about 40 seconds left!) but King James took care of business in Game 6 by putting in a triple-double (27 pts, 13 boards, 13 assists - that's dirty).
The Celtics and the Cavs will both be thrilled to not be seeing the Hawks or Wizards on Tuesday, as two extremely chippy series finally ended. Hopefully this series will be more about basketball and less about teams playing cheap and extremely rough (The Hawks & Wizards only chances to win was to foul hard whenever possible; DeShawn Stevenson and Marvin Williams, enjoy the off-season, a-holes!).
This series could go either way - especially considering the Celtics have been Dr. Jeykl and Mr. Hyde this postseason, looking unbeatable at home and very vulnerable on the road. And if they had so much trouble with Joe Johnson, will they be able to handle LeBron. Well, the rest of Cleveland's team isn't very good, and the homer that I am, I will nervously take the Celtics to advance because they will throw everything but the kitchen sink at LeBron.
Prediction: Celtics in 7.
(2) Detroit Pistons (59-23)
(3) Orlando Magic (52-30)
Season Series: They split the season series, each winning two games
Analysis: [Editor’s Note: This was written Friday before the series kicked off] When the Pistons found themselves trailing by 10 points at halftime in Game 4 against the Sixers, already trailing 2-1 in the series, I remember thinking, “Maybe the Pistons just don’t have the horses this year.” They proceeded to dismantle and dominate the Sixers for the next 10 quarters of basketball. They woke up. They did what they had to do. And they started playing defense again. They out-scored the Sixers by 19 in that momentum and arguably series-ending half of basketball, holding them to just 38 points. Then they destroyed them in the next two games to advance to face the upstart Magic.
The Magic are obviously led by Man-Child Dwight Howard, all 6 feet, 11 inches, 265 pounds & 23 years of him. Howard is probably the most dominant young big man since Shaq and Duncan were in their 20s. Howard averaged 22.6 points and 18.2 rebounds per game against the Raptors; those are just beastly numbers. Unfortunately, the Raptors don’t have anything resembling a big man on their team that could even remotely handle Howard’s size or strength, nor do the words “tough” cross your mind when you think of the Raptors roster and their style of play. Detroit is different – a very tough, very physical, veteran team that has been there and done that. While Rasheed Wallace may not have the strength or while Antonio McDyess & Jason Maxiell may not have the height, they are going to make life tough on Howard, and they will exploit his terrible foul shooting by giving him nothing for free. The Magic will have their work cut out for them, and Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu will need to shoot much higher percentages than they did against the Raptors for them to have a chance, as the abundant 2nd chance opportunities won’t be there like they were against Toronto. And after all this, the Magic still would need their average backcourt to stop Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton, which is never an easy task.
The long and short of it though, is that the Magic do not defend very well (allowed just a shade under 100 points per game to the Raptors after allowing 99 per game all season) and they defend nowhere near the level that the Pistons do (they allowed just 85.8 points per game against the Sixers after allowing just 90.1 points per game during the season, tops in the NBA). Defense will dictate this series, and while I think the Magic will steal two games, they will not win three. [Author's Note: The result of Saturday night's Game 1 of this series confirms everything I wrote. I feel smart.]
Prediction: Pistons in 6.
Western Conference Preview
(1) Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)
(4) Utah Jazz (54-28)
Season Series: The Lakers took 3 out of 4 against the Jazz
Analysis: The Lakers looked great in their first round series, sweeping the Nuggets, although the Nuggets looked like the were more interested in getting out to the clubs after the game than actually playing the game. Regardless, the Lakers took care of business, as No.1 seeds are supposed too. Kobe looked great and had a monster Game 2. And more importantly, there won't be any awkward, "Here's your MVP award, Mr. Nowitzki" moments as this year's MVP will still be playing when it is awarded to him.
The Jazz had a funny series with the Rockets, losing Game 3 at home after a 37-4 home campaign during the season. Despite this shocking loss, they were able to win their other two games at home and advance against T-Mac, who appears to be the A-Rod of the NBA (great player, can't win in the playoffs).
The analysis of this series is simple, and unfortunately for the Jazz, this series will come down to one major point: Kobe Bryant and the fact that the Jazz don't have anyone who can guard him. While the Jazz' Deron Williams is the best point guard and will have a huge advantage over Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar, Kobe's advantage over Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver is much, much greater. While both teams' frontcourts match up very well (although Utah has a slight advantage with Okur, Boozer and Kirlenko over Gasol, Odum and Radmanovic). But none of this will matter. The Jazz cannot stop Kobe at all. He torched the Jazz for almost 30 points per game against them this year; in fact, the only time the Jazz beat the Lakers they were at home and "held" Kobe to 27. On top of not having someone who can defend Kobe, they cannot afford to have Korver in the game for too many minutes because he'd be trying to guard Kobe; yet his presence on offense has been intregral for the Jazz (they acquired him in December and finished the season 38-12; his scoring off the bench is huge for them). But like the regular season, the Jazz will just not have enough to top LA. And this is coming from a born-and-raised Celtic fan who grew up and still hates the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers in 6.
(2) New Orleans Hornets (56-26)
(3) San Antonio Spurs (56-26)
Season Series: They split the season series, each winning two games
Analysis: [Editor’s Note: This was written Friday before the series kicked off] Count me as another person who got “Rope-A-Doped” by the Spurs. We’ve all grown so accustomed to the Spurs being so great, when they lost to Celtics on March 17, they sat at a respectable record of 44-23, however that was mediocre by their standards. What myself and many other pundits forgot was that the Spurs battled injuries to all three of their superstar trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Longoria, er, Parker. Since that loss to Boston, they flew way under the radar, reeling off 12 wins in their final 15 games, earning the 3rd seed and what was supposed to be an epic series with the Suns. After an epic Game 1, in which the Spurs twice hit last-second three-pointers to force additional frames and won it at the buzzer of the 2nd overtime, the Spurs made quick work of the Suns. And like many other people, I failed to recognize that the Spurs have that extra gear for the playoffs, and that they turned it on around March 18. It just took us a month to realize that this team is a different animal in the playoffs.
The Hornets are one of the feel-good stories of the 2007-2008 NBA season; improving 19 games in their record and seeing several of their young players improve. Chris Paul took his game to another level this year, averaging 21.1 points and 11.6 assists per game. And when you watch him play, you realize how much of a leader he is and how great of defender he is. David West continued improving, also scoring over 20 points per game this year. Tyson Chandler never looked better. Peja Stojakovic and Mo Peterson also flourished this year because Paul was able to create so many open looks for them.
All that said, the Hornets are about to get a lesson in playoff basketball. Parker has the speed to stick with Paul and the Spurs have one of the best coaches in the business in Greg Popovich (and I know Byron Scott won Coach of the Year, but that’s because the Hornets played better than expected). Popovich and his staff will devise a defensive scheme that will most likely see lots of double-teams and ball-denying tactics on Paul, since the Hornets tend to scuffle a bit if he’s removed from the game plan. I picked against the Spurs once, I will not make that mistake again (well at least not this round). They are the defending champions for a reason. [Author's Note: Well, Game 1 of this series was exactly different than what I wrote. I feel dumb. But I will stick with my prediction of the Spurs winning the series.]
Prediction: Spurs in 7.
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