NBA Conference Finals Preview

NBA Playoffs’ Conference Finals Preview

Welcome back for another round of Previews and Predictions as the NBA Playoffs has reached its Final Four, the Conference Finals. I was a game off on the Detroit-Orlando series from picking the 2nd round perfectly, both the winners and the length of the series. Not to toot my horn or anything. In the East, we have the matchup that everyone has been expecting since their first meeting back in mid-December. In the West, we have the defending champions challenging the upstart Lakers, a team no one expected to be this good back in 2007.

Eastern Conference Preview

(1) Boston Celtics (66-16)

(2) Detroit Pistons (59-23)

Season Series: The Celtics won the season series, winning 2 of 3 versus the Pistons.
Analysis: The Celtics finished off the Cleveland LeBrons on Sunday and have continued a maddening trend of looking fantastic at home in the Garden and terrible on the road. In case you’ve been in a coma and for some reason this is the first NBA reading you are doing, the Celtics are 8-0 at home and 0-6 on the road. These are strange results from a 66-16 team that went 31-10 on the road in the regular season. The Big Three have been the Big Two, as the major concern for the Celtics was Ray Allen’s inability to provide any offense during the Cleveland series.
The Pistons have been resting up for a week, so Chauncey Billups should be ready to go after being sidelined two games with a hamstring injury. They have looked impressive in the playoffs, winning 7 of their last 8 games after falling behind 2-1 to Philadelphia in the first round. However, Orlando wasn’t much of a test as they were clearly the worst team to reach the 2nd round.
The Celtics and the Pistons series should resemble some of those slobber-knocker Knicks-Heat wars of the ‘90s, emphasis on defense and rebounding and not a lot of scoring. This should be battle of the boards too, as I expect that which ever team controls the glass will control the games, much like the team with the rebounding edge won each game in the Boston-Cleveland series. It should be noted that the Celtics beat the Pistons twice in the regular season and the lone loss to them was due to Tony Allen falling for a Billups pump-fake and fouling him with 0.2 seconds in a tie game. Yes, the same Tony Allen who is buried on the Celtics bench now. So, the Celtics had the Pistons’ number in the regular season, but it should be also noted that the Celtics swept Atlanta in the regular season and it took 7 games to get rid of them. So, Pistons’ backers will point to the fact that the regular season doesn’t matter, and that they have the battle-tested, playoff-proven team, which is true.
I believe the biggest match-up in the series is at the point guard position. The Celtics have proven this year that if Rajon Rondo is having a good game, they are pretty much unbeatable. Rondo is way too fast for Billups, even if his hamstring is at the alleged 100% he says it is. But Billups is way too strong for Rondo and more experienced. Both players have a history of playing great some games and bad in others. How this match-up plays out will have a huge impact on the series, and I think Rondo is up for the challenge.
Another impact will be how Doc Rivers and Flip Saunders try to “out-coach” each other – a hilarious concept in itself. This can be viewed as the exact opposite of the fantastic coaching match-up in the West Finals. The X-factor is if Flip’s tenure as Garnett’s coach in Minnesota has yielded him some knowledge that can be used to the Pistons advantage; I’m very, very doubtful even if Flip had some knowledge to exploit, he’d be able to apply to a game-plan. But you never know.
Finally, I think the Pistons will be able to steal one in Boston; but I also think Boston ends their road woes and steals one right back, and they come to Boston for Game 5 with the series up for grabs, tied at 2 games a piece. And then each team will hold serve at home. The Palace has a great crowd, but they’ve been spoiled for the past few years. The Garden has been rocking and has been the loudest crowd in the NBA this postseason. The Celtics will not lose Game 7 in front of their raucous home fans.
Prediction: Celtics in 7.

Western Conference Preview

(1) Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)

(3) San Antonio Spurs (56-26)

Season Series: They split the season series, each winning two games.
Analysis: The Lakers have been the most impressive team in the playoffs, sweeping through Denver and taking Utah out in 6. But neither team has had anyone capable of even slowing Kobe Bryant, so we haven’t had a good barometer of what the Lakers can do against a great defensive team, which is precisely what they will be facing in the West Finals.
The Spurs strapped it on last night and played some suffocating defense against the Hornets, slowing Chris Paul down just enough to build a big lead and without that furious run at the end. The Champs stole a game in New Orleans where their performance the previous three games there can be described somewhere between disgusting and god-awful (3 losses by an average of 19.7 points). They did what they always do. Play defense, rebound and hit big three-pointers, with a little flopping mixed in.
Everyone in the media has been anointing the Lakers as the favorite, and if I were a Lakers’ fan, I’d be excited about this match-up, because if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best, and the Spurs are the team of the decade. No excuses from the haters if they didn’t have to face San Antonio (or to a lesser degree, Phoenix). Tony Parker has raised his game to the level it was at last postseason when he won the Finals MVP (and he hit the nail in the coffin shot last night in New Orleans) and should be a handful for Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar.
The Lakers have sported the best postseason offense, but Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol & Lamar Odum will finally be guarded by some good defenders, so it will be important to see if they can keep scoring at will (69 points per game combined in the playoffs). Gregg Popovich and Phil Jackson represent two of the top coaches in basketball history and they are facing off in a battle of adjustments. And while it is extremely tough picking against the champs, but Kobe and company have come too far to lose it now, and they have the home-court advantage. And unlike the Hornets, they will not wilt at home in a Game 7.
Prediction: Lakers in 7.

Author’s Note: I apologize for the lack of detail in the analysis of the Spurs-Lakers series; I’ve been so damn entrenched in the Celts-Cavs series, I didn’t watch much of either of their semi-final series, because the Celts-Cavs games were physically draining to watch. When I did tune in, it was like an old hat: Kobe scores a big bucket, Duncan gets a big board, Ginobili flops and draws a big foul, etc, etc. I will be watching this series, closely, as I want to see who my Celtics (hopefully) will be matched up against in the Finals.

That’s right, it’s going to feel like the mid-80’s all over again! The NBA’s golden era! Dust off those old clips of Bird, Magic, McHale, Kareem, Parish, Worthy, DJ, Cooper, Maxwell, Wilkes, etc. Good times all around. Get some stock in ABC, because they are about to make a shit-ton of money broadcasting this dream match-up.

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