The NL West is loaded with good pitching this year. And as it has been the past few years, expect a battle all the way down to the last week in September between as many as 4 of these teams - I'll give you a hint which team doesn't make a run at the division title, and it rhymes with Cleveland Indians OF Ben Francisco.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: 90-72
Key Additions: Andruw Jones, Hiroki Kuroda, Joe Torre (manager)
Key Losses: Luis Gonzalez, Mike Lieberthal, Olmedo Saenz, Randy Wolf, Brett Tomko
Projected Lineup: SS Furcal, LF Pierre, C Martin, CF Jones, 2B Kent, 1B Loney, 3B LaRoche, RF Kemp/Ethier
Projected Rotation: Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, Schmidt/Loazia & Saito
Analysis: I’m kind of surprised with myself with my pick for the Dodgers to win this division, but I think they can. They have a incredibly deep team (note that I do not even have Garciaparra in the starting lineup, and while he's mostly washed up, he can still hit for average), good up and coming talent, a superstar catcher, a former perennial All-Star centerfielder with something to prove, a very good shortstop who’s healthy this year and entering a contract year and a great pitching staff. And to top it off, they brought in one of the most successful managers in the past two decades to take the reigns. While Torre will probably fall back to his old bag of tricks and burn out Scott Proctor’s arm by August (just like old times – I’m excited to see this), he does know how to balance a clubhouse and calmly lead a team through the good and the bad. He should help the Dodgers avoid the late season collapse they had last year and get them a division crown. Or at least the wild card. But I’m betting on the division. Call me crazy.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: 89-73 (Wild Card)
Key Additions: Dan Haren, Trot Nixon
Key Losses: Carlos Quentin, Livan Hernandez, Jose Valverde
Projected Lineup: CF Young, 2B Hudson, LF Byrnes, 1B Jackson, 3B Tracy/Reynolds, RF Upton, SS Drew, C Synder
Projected Rotation & Closer: Webb, Haren, Johnson, Davis, Owings & Lyon
Analysis: If only this team could hit. Because what a rotation! Randy Johnson is the 3rd starter, behind Brandon Webb and Danny Haren – two bona fide aces. Doug Davis and Micah Owings are very formidable 4th and 5th starters respectively. But the offense isn’t very good. There’s limited power and this isn’t a very patient lineup. Although they did win the division last year with relatively the same lineup, and their pitching has improved, so what do I know? Although it will be interesting to see if the loss of Jose Valverde to the Astros hurts them. By moving Brandon Lyon back to closer, they’re losing a great set-up man. It would be a shame to see Webb & Haren lose 7-inning gems because they don’t have a proven 8th inning guy to even get to Lyon. And I love the Trot Nixon signing – while he doesn’t have much left in the tank as a player, he brings a clubhouse leadership quality that showed itself for the Indians last year. His veteran leadership should help the youngsters this team has, at least better than the veteran leadership they get from Crazy Hair Byrnes. While they just don’t have the offense firepower to keep up with the Dodgers, they should still make the playoffs as the wild card.
3.
San Diego Padres
Prediction: 88-74
Key Additions: Jim Edmonds, Tadahito Iguchi, Mark Prior, Randy Wolf,
Key Losses: Jose Cruz, Jr., Marcus Giles, Terrmel Sledge
Projected Lineup: RF Giles, 2B Iguchi, 1B Gonzalez, CF Edmonds, 3B Kouzmanoff, SS Greene, LF Hairston, C Bard
Projected Rotation & Closer: Peavy, Young, Maddux, Wolf, Prior & Hoffman
Analysis: Everything I just wrote about Arizona, I want to copy it here, and call them Arizona Light. While reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and Chris Young make a fantastic 1-2 punch, questions remain about the health of Maddux (age), Wolf & Prior (chronic DL guys). How much more does Hoffman have left in the tank, especially after that huge choke job he pulled in the one-game playoff against the Rockies last year. Does Mariano Rivera blow a 3-run lead in the 11th in the playoffs? And this is from the career saves leader. And their offense is just as shaky as Arizona’s – limited power and not very patient. Jim Edmonds brings great defense, but will he even play 100 games this year? Will Kouzmanoff finally put it together? This team could make the playoffs by riding its pitching and getting the bats hot at the right times, but I don’t see them pulling it off, again going back to that choke job in the one-game playoff last year. That’s a tough pill to swallow and usually takes a year to get past.
4. Colorado Rockies
Prediction: 81-81
Key Addition: Marcus Giles
Key Losses: Kazuo Matsui, Jeremy Affeldt, LaTroy Hawkins
Projected Lineup: CF Tavarez, SS Tulowitzki, LF Holliday, 1B Helton, 3B Atkins, RF Hawpe, C Torrealba, 2B Giles
Projected Rotation & Closer: Francis, Cook, Fogg, Jimenez, Morales & Corpas/Fuentes
Analysis: This prediction might seem like quite a drop in the standings for the Rockies, but let’s not forget this team was 76-72 before reeling off one of the most incredible runs in baseball history to reach the World Series. And this team will trot out almost the same team (except for the downgrade at 2nd base from Matsui to Giles ... imagine that statement about 3 years ago - things can change fast in baseball) and that team was 1 more loss in the final two weeks away from missing the playoffs all together. Don’t get me wrong, this team can mash the ball. But I’m not sold on the pitching that was, at best, average for 148 games and then very good for the stretch run, and they lost Affeldt & Hawkins, who were each key members of the bullpen last year. And if you look at the rotations of the Dodgers, D-backs & Padres, you’ll see at least 2 starters on each of those teams you'd take over Jeff Francis, their ace. While they have one of the best lineups, pitching wins championships, and that is where the Rockies are lacking. They should try to get someone like Blanton off of the Athletics (who are in complete rebuilding mode) for some of their young talent (the centerpiece of the deal could be Ian Stewart or Jeff Baker since only one can replace Todd Helton when he retires). But for now, unless they improve their pitching, they would need to recapture the magic of last season for them to make another run at the World Series.
5. San Francisco Giants
Prediction: 70-92
Key Addition: Aaron Rowand
Key Losses: Barry Bonds, Pedro Feliz, Ryan Klesko
Projected Lineup: LF Roberts, SS Vizquel, RF Winn, C Molina, CF Rowand, 2B Durham, 1B Ortmeier/Aurillia, 3B Frandsen/Aurilla
Projected Rotation & Closer: Cain, Lincecum, Zito, Lowry, Correia & Wilson
Analysis: This is the nursing home of the league even without Bonds. Looking at this team, you almost wonder if the Giants should trade Cain & Lincecum for as many prospects as possible, as each of them will be ready for free agency by the time the Giants have a good team built around them. This management team has been terrible, and the demise of this franchise goes back to the trade for AJ Pierzynski – the day they gave up prospects Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser. Whooops! The signings of Zito last year and Aaron Rowand this year make no sense because those two guys are more complimentary players, yet their being paid like superstars. This team needs to take the Oakland/Minnesota route and blow the whole thing up, build from the farm and plan to make a run at the title in 2011. Because this team is old and not very good. Cain & Lincecum will keep them competitive, but that’s about it.
Be back tomorrow for the playoff predictions!
American League 2008
2008 - AL East Predictions
2008 - AL Central Predictions
2008 - AL West Predictions
National League 2008
2008 - NL East Predictions
2008 - NL Central Predictions
2008 - NL West Predictions
2008 Playoffs
2008 MLB Playoff Predictions
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1.) Diamondbacks
They won it last year, and they added a pitcher who was a Cy Young candidate last season. Not only that, but Haren is replacing Livan Hernandez. It's like being in debt for 5G's and you win 10...The offense isn't spectacular, but they didn't need it to be last year, and it should only get better as everyone in the lineup has room for improvement this season.
W: 88-92
2.) Dodgers
Most well rounded team in the NL in my opinion. I'd put them slightly above average in hitting and both areas of pitching. This means they'll be able to sustain injuries and outlast teams through the grind of the season. They need the young guys to light a fire under the veterans, a situation Torre is all too familiar with.
W: 85-90
3.) Rockies
What they lack in pitching they make up for in hitting. This team is very similiar to the Phillies except the starters lack true ace potential, but the bullpen is more solid. I'd expect them to be competitive all season long, but in the end there just won't be enough pitching.
W: 82-87
4.) Padres
Too dependent on one man....Peavy. They needed a bat and they didn't get it. Edmonds just isn't enough. By standing still they've severly narrowed their opportunities for victory. If Peavy has any setback at all it's back to the basement for the Padres.
W: 80-85
5.) Giants
Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum will have many valiant efforts on the mound go for naught, as the offense is deplorable. Pitching may win championships, but you need runs to win games.
W: 65 with a bullet.
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