MLB 2008 Predictions Part 3 of 7 - AL WEST

Here is part 3 of my 1st annual MLB Predictions. Today we'll touch on the tiny AL West.

1. Seattle Mariners

Prediction: 91-71
Key Additions: Erik Bedard, Carlos Silva, Brad Wilkerson
Key Losses: Ben Broussard, Jose Guillen, Adam Jones, George Sherrill
Projected Lineup: CF Ichiro, DH Vidro, 3B Beltre, LF Ibanez, 1B Sexson, C Johjima, RF Wilkerson, 2B Lopez, SS Betancourt
Projected Rotation & Closer: Bedard, Hernandez, Washburn, Batista, Silva & Putz
Analysis: Seattle Mariners, you are my sleeper pick of 2008. Okay, maybe not a sleeper, since everyone is talking about the 1-2 starting punch of Bedard and King Felix (Like the irony that the guy nicknamed ‘King’ isn’t even his team’s ace anymore? That's nasty). And with top-notch closer Putz back there, look for the Mariners to be as competitive as they were last year, but with the added kick of having two aces. And their lineup is very solid – starting with Ichiro of course. Beltre hasn’t been as big of a bust as he first seemed to be when he got to Seattle, although Sexson has. If (and this is a big if) Sexson could get his average up to the .250-.260 range he could be downright scary in the 5 hole because that would probably lead to a 40+ HR season. THAT IS A BIG IF, I remind you. While Lopez and Betancourt each have bats that could be described as ‘impartial’ they make up for it with very good defense. On the hole, the Mariners team most closely resembles the mold that the Red Sox use – they have a solid offense backed by great defense, great overall rotation, good bullpen and a dominant closer. This recipe has proven to be successful over the past few years, so I see no reason why it won’t work for the Mariners.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Prediction: 90-72
Key Additions: Torii Hunter, Jon Garland
Key Losses: Orlando Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, Dallas McPherson
Projected Lineup: 3B Figgins, 2B Kendrick, RF Guerrero, CF Hunter, DH Anderson, LF Matthews, 1B Kotchman/Rivera, C Napoli, SS Izturis
Projected Rotation: Lackey, Escobar, Garland, Weaver, Santana/Saunders & Rodriguez (although Escobar will begin the season on the shelf)
Analysis: Since catching lightning in a bottle back in 2002, the Angels have been consistent spender in the free agent market and consistent preseason favorite. They’ve even made the playoffs in 3 of the last 5 years, which is no small accomplishment. While the Angels made some improvements (signing Hunter and trading for Garland) they haven’t improved too much, and the loss of Cabrera could be bigger than their management thinks. This team doesn’t seem to have an ‘energy’ guys that can get the team going like Cabrera did (and he did that in Boston as well – not bringing him back was a huge mistake that the Sox made and are still paying for it). Hunter will provide Vladdy with better protection than he’s had in years, but how much can this man’s knees take? If Guerrero goes down for an extended period of time this offense could go into a prolonged funk. Garland gives them an innings-eater who should be close to replacing Escobar in the rotation at the start of the year. Although the Angels need Escobar’s shoulder troubles to clear up if they want to really compete this year. Notice the theme here – the Angels are a banged up bunch, and the season hasn’t even started yet. At some point, these oft-injured players will get hurt, and the team will suffer. They are putting their faith in a healthy season from their whole team, which isn’t going to happen. And this team is least prepared to deal with it. At least they won’t have to get swept out of the playoffs by the Sox AGAIN this year.

3. Texas Rangers

Prediction: 71-91
Key Additions: Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, Ben Broussard, Jason Jennings, Eddie Guardado, Kazuo Fukumori
Key Losses: Sammy Sosa, Brad Wilkerson, Akinori Otsuka
Projected Lineup: CF Hamilton, 2B Kinsler, SS Young, DH Bradley, 3B Blalock, 1B/C Broussard/Saltalamacchia, RF Byrd, LF Catalanotto, C Laird
Projected Rotation & Closer: Millwood, Jennings, McCarthy, Gabbard, Padilla & Wilson
Analysis: The more things change, the more they stay the same. That should be the team motto. After bringing in a good amount of talent this offseason, they still managing to bring in nutcase Milton Bradley to negate everything they did. This man tore his ACL being restrained by his own coach as he went after an umpire! Why does it seem like a good idea to ever have a guy like this on your team?!? Kinsler needs to have a full season, Young needs to find his power stroke (which has suspiciously been missing the past two seasons, coincidentally when drug testing went into effect), Blalock needs to not have any ribs removed, Saltalamacchia needs to prove he’s ready for the show, Hamilton needs to keep up the good story (no relapses please) and Bradley needs to not be crazy for this offense to work. And even if it does, they still sport a below average rotation. Kevin Millwood should never be anyone’s ace. Jennings, McCarthy, Gabbard and Padilla are all good starters – fourth and fifth starters. Not one of them should ever be considered a second or third starter. Their bullpen is okay, led by C. J. Wilson, who looks promising after a half-year at closer. But this will be like every other Rangers season since they blew it up at the turn of the century: no better than 3rd place.

4. Oakland Athletics

Prediction: 70-92
Key Additions: Emil Brown, Carlos Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Sweeney
Key Losses: Dan Haren, Mark Kotsay, Mike Piazza, Shannon Stewart, Nick Swisher
Projected Lineup: 2B Ellis, 1B Barton, 3B Chavez, DH Cust, LF Brown, SS Crosby, RF Buck, CF Denorfia, C Suzuki
Projected Rotation & Closer: Harden, Blanton, Gaudin, DiNardo, Duchscherer & Street
Analysis: The A’s have a chance to be historically bad, especially if they trade away a few more working parts for prospects (how bad does Billy Beane want another team to have a gaping need for a 3rd baseman at the trading deadline?). In fact, the only reason I have predicted them to have 70 wins is because the A’s, even when they look terrible on paper, find a way to win games. But they aren’t going to win much. If Rich ‘Don’t Call Me Mark Prior’ Harden stays healthy, they have a bonafide ace to go with solid number two Joe Blanton. But the rest of their rotation is experimental. Their bullpen is good, and Huston Street is a great closer (but he's another health-concerning pitcher), but the bullpen is going to burn out covering all the extra innings they need to throw when starters three thru five take the hill. And Duchscherer was one of their most reliable relievers and he’ll be starting, weakening the pen. But the offense should struggle as they will give much ‘on-the-job training’ this year. Don’t expect much from these guys this year. But look out for them in 2010.

American League 2008

2008 - AL East Predictions

2008 - AL Central Predictions

2008 - AL West Predictions

National League 2008

2008 - NL East Predictions

2008 - NL Central Predictions

2008 - NL West Predictions

2008 Playoffs

2008 MLB Playoff Predictions

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