Here's part two of my seven part preview. I continue onward with the AL Central. Parts 3 thru 7 will be out next week, and go to my blog entries to see part 1.
1. Detroit Tigers
Prediction: 99-63
Key Additions: Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Dontrelle Willis, Jacque Jones
Key Losses: Joel Zumaya (injury), Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller
Projected Lineup: CF Granderson, 2B Polanco, 3B Cabrera, RF Ordonez, DH Sheffield, 1B Guillen, SS Renteria, LF Thames/Jones, C Rodriguez (although 3 thru 5 can be in any order)
Projected Rotation & Closer: Verlander, Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Rogers & Jones
Analysis: After getting oh-so-close in 2006, the Tigers had a bit of a drop-off in 2007. So that taste led to a crazy offseason where the Tigers traded prospects for proven talent – and young talent too. Getting Cabrera & Willis for Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller (plus some more prospects) was a coup. They traded a young pitcher away for Renteria, allowing incumbent SS Guillen to move to 1st base since his defense is declining. Although they are hoping Renteria adjusts better to the American League than his last go-round (a terrible year for the Sox in which he led the league in both errors and being booed by his home crowd). Either way, Renteria shouldn’t feel much pressure as he’ll be batting no higher than 7th most of the year. The Tigers have assembled a present-day Murder’s Row of an offense – former league MVP Pudge Rodriguez will bat 9th. Cabrera, Ordonez & Sheffield are a scary 3-4-5 combo (and the order of those 3 is still TBD). If anything, the only disadvantage this team has is that they do not have many left-handed hitters and that they will still go with bend-but-don’t-break closer Todd Jones. But they have a solid offense and a very good rotation. They are my pick to league the majors in wins in 2008.
2. Cleveland Indians
Prediction: 85-77
Key Additions: Masahide Kobayashi (not the hot dog eater)
Key Losses: Trot Nixon, Kenny Lofton
Projected Lineup: CF Sizemore, 2B Cabrera, DH Hafner, C Martinez, 1B Garko, SS Peralta, 3B Blake, LF Delucci, RF Gutierrez
Projected Rotation & Closer: Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Byrd, Lee & Borowski
Analysis: Like the Red Sox and the Yankees, the Indians chose to stand pat this off-season and come back with last year’s squad. Unfortunate for them, the Red Sox and the Yankees have chosen to do this because they are going to be expanding the roles of their youngsters. The Indians, while still a young team, are coming back with essentially the same team and don’t have much in the farm coming up to help. They still have a good 1-2 pitching punch with Sabathia and Carmona, but Carmona has to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. They still have a young lineup, but how much better can Sizemore, Hafner & Martinez be? So the Indians are banking on marked improvement from Garko, Peralta & Blake this year to help the offense. The elephant in the room though is that they still have Joe Borowski closing for them – while they won in spite of him last year, I cannot see that repeating this year. The Indians best bet is for Borowski to be so bad in April that Eric Wedge is forced into replacing him with lights-out reliever Rafael Betancourt. All in all, the playoff scars inflicted on them by the Red Sox and the failure to improve in the offseason will lead to their regression this year.
3. Chicago White Sox
Prediction: 84-78
Key Additions: Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink
Key Losses: Jon Garland, Darin Erstad, Scott Podsednik
Projected Lineup: SS Cabrera, CF Swisher, 1B Konerko, DH Thome, RF Dye, C Pierzynski, 3B Fields/Crede, LF Quentin, 2B Richar
Projected Rotation & Closer: Vazquez, Buerhle, Contreras, Danks, Floyd & Jenks
Analysis: The White Sox quietly built quite an offense themselves this offseason – they were clearly overshadowed by the free wheelin’ Tigers. The additions of Cabrera and Swisher to the top of the lineup will be huge for their middle of the order guys. Of course, health is always a concern when considering Jim Thome & Jermaine Dye – but they each proved when healthy, they are big time power hitters. They also did a great job getting Carlos Quentin from Arizona – he projects to be an excellent player down the road, and this team isn’t getting any younger. The problem the White Sox made this offseason was they didn’t improve their pitching very much (let’s not forget they won the World Series behind good pitching, as all teams tend to do). The signings of both Dotel and Linebrink showed a commitment to improve their terrible bullpen (except for closer Bobby Jenks) but they overpaid for both. Also, Linebrink may have been a product of Petco when he was with the Padres and Dotel will probably end up on the DL at some point, because that’s what Dotel is known for – getting hurt. And by trading away Garland they hurt their rotation – Danks & Floyd both may not be quite ready for a full-time starter duty but are being thrown into the fire. Ultimately, pitching will be their undoing.
4. Minnesota Twins
Prediction: 81-81
Key Additions: Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Mike Lamb, Carlos Gomez, Craig Monroe, Livan Hernandez, Francisco Liriano (back from injury)
Key Losses: Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Carlos Silva
Projected Lineup: CF Gomez, C Mauer, RF Young, 1B Morneau, LF Cuddyer, 3B Lamb, 2B Harris, DH Kubel, SS Everett
Projected Rotation & Closer: Liriano, Bonser, Hernandez, Baker, Slowey & Nathan
Analysis: The prediction of a .500 season from a team that let Torii Hunter walk and traded Johan Santana away may surprise folks, but there are two reasons I’ve predicted this. One, the Twins are not as bad as you think, and two, no matter how bad the Twins look, they always end up competitive for long stretches of the season. Let’s not forget that Justin Morneau is a former AL MVP. Delmon Young has all the tools to be a superstar and Joe Mauer is one of the best catchers in baseball (when healthy). They still have a pretty good rotation; especially if Liriano can pitch 70% as effective as he was two seasons ago (he’d be a top-10 starter in all of baseball, that’s how good he was that year). They still have a very talented bullpen anchored by lights-out closer Joe Nathan, and they have a very good defensive team, so they won’t shot themselves in the foot. But lack of depth (to cover the impending injuries that almost always occur), lack of production from the bottom of the order, and a youthful starting rotation will keep them from making the next step. And you have to wonder if they can make one more run with their young studs (Mauer, Young, Morneau, Liriano, Nathan) before they are forced to trade them like Santana, when they cannot afford to re-sign them and need to get something for them. I’m glad I’m not a Twins fan – their owner is the richest owner in baseball yet acts like the poorest.
5. Kansas City Royals
Prediction: 63-99
Key Additions: Jose Guillen, Yasuhiko Yabuta, Alberto Callaspo, Miguel Olivo, Brett Tomko
Key Losses: Emil Brown, Mike Sweeney, Reggie Sanders, David Riske
Projected Lineup: CF DeJesus, 2B Grudzielanek, 3B Gordon, RF Guillen, DH Butler, LF Teahan, 1B Shealy/Gload, C Olivo/Buck, SS Pena
Projected Rotation & Closer: Meche, Bannister, Grienke, De La Rosa, Davies & Soria
Analysis: I don’t know what to write about this team. They seem to draft well and trade for young talent well. Look at the homegrown talent (DeJesus, Gordon, Butler, Teahan, Gload, Buck, Pena, Bannister, Grienke) and the youth acquired through trades (Shealy, Olivo, Callaspo, Davies, De La Rosa, Soria). That’s a boatload of young talent. They’ve also developed some great talents who’ve left as free agents (Carlos Beltron, Jermaine Dye & Johnny Damon to name a few). But whenever they sign a free agent, you’re left scratching you’re head, thinking, “they gave how much to [insert player’s name here]?!?” Seriously, while Meche wasn’t as bad of a signing as it looked when 2007 was all said and done, he still wasn’t worth $11M a year for 5 years! And then the go out and sign uber-headcase Jose Guillen to a 3 year, $36M deal! And he’s suspended the first 15 games for a performance enhancing drugs violation. I’m all for the Royals opening up the checkbook from time to time, but they need to be more selective. Jose Guillen is also not exactly a behavior role model for all these youngsters. I like their young core. But these youngsters will be brought up through just another losing season in Kansas City. At some point, young players need to be in winning situations to reach their true potential. Do you think Derek Jeter would have thrived in KC like he has in NY? No way – because he learned how to win and knows how to win. These KC kids will have to teach themselves how to win, and that’s a difficult task.
American League 2008
2008 - AL East Predictions
2008 - AL Central Predictions
2008 - AL West Predictions
National League 2008
2008 - NL East Predictions
2008 - NL Central Predictions
2008 - NL West Predictions
2008 Playoffs
2008 MLB Playoff Predictions
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1. Tigers
The offense will be there no doubt, but pitching is their weakness. Bonderman is the key to how far they go this season, and after watching the way he finished the season last year it's hard for me to put that kind of confidence in him. Either he or Dontrelle must raise their game to a new level, if not that suspect bullpen will be exposed and exploited.
W: 90-95
2. Indians
The exact opposite of Detroit. Pitching is there no doubt, but offense is their weakness. Good pitching took out their bats in the playoffs, and they'll need Hafner to return to Pronk mashing status if they want to overtake the Tigers. Sizemore may need to catapult himself from all-star to superstar this year.
W: 87-92
3. Twins
Mugatu you were right to not disrespect this team. Delmon may not be the clubhouse leader that Torii was, but he can definitely replace his lineup production. It will be up to Morneau and Mauer to lead from the clubhouse and with the bat. I'd expect a strong push out of the gate to shut up all those naysayers, but all the young pitching won't be able to sustain the grind of the season.
W: 80-85
4. White Sox
Contreras Danks and Floyd are good for nothing other than a gurantee Dotel will be used too often and will end up on the DL. Swisher just may be the most overrated OF in MLB, and if you think both Dye and Thome can carry this offense through an entire season I have a bridge in Minneapolis I want to sell you.
W: 72-77
5.Royals
I'd rather be a Royals fan this upcoming year than be on the wrong side of the tracks in Chi-Town. They'll play good ball, but it won't be at a highly competitive level yet. Hopefully Gordon and Butler become the offensive beasts many are hoping for. To address Mugatu's annoyance at KC's FA signings; they just don't have the options other teams do. Not only are they a small market, but they're a perennially losing small market. Even above market prices to FA's may not be enough to lure a player. When most FA's want to win and make money what's the difference of a couple million when we're taking 40+ million ? These teams can make very few large commitments look how far back the Hampton signing set the Rox.
W: 70-75
I can't see the Tigers winning 99 games this season. With Miguel Cabrera now hitting in the middle of the lineup, their offense is devastating and will probably challenge that of the Yankees to score the most runs in baseball, but they have major question marks in their pitching staff. They're relying on 43-year-old Kenny Rogers, who is coming off a season in which he started just 11 games, to be the #2 man. Jeremy Bonderman took a major step backwards last year, showing signs of frailty while also tacking on nearly a run to his 2006 ERA, and back-end man Dontrelle Willis is probably the most overrated pitcher in baseball, having seen both his strikeout rate and walk rate move in the wrong direction each of the last 2 years. Take into consideration that they have Todd Jones closing, with Zumaya out for about half the season; that the pen leading up to Jones is pretty average; that the health of 39-year-old Gary Sheffield is uncertain; and that they probably can't reasonably expect a repeat performance from Magglio Ordonez, who last year bested his career OBP and SLG by 64 and 73 points, respectively, and 99 wins looks virtually impossible. (And, for the record, former MVP Ivan Rodriguez won the award 8 years ago and hasn't been even an average major-league hitter, as measured by OPS+, since his first year with the Tigers)