Draft Thoughts

I want to get a few of my thoughts down about the upcoming NBA draft (which is pretty much the most meaningless draft of my life as a Celtics fan - the first draft I can remember was 1986, which was very meaningful - and very painful). You heard it hear first, so when I'm right about something, remember, it was a pre-draft thought from yours truly.

-With the first pick, the Bulls select ... Derrick Rose. And they are DUMB. I see Rose's celing being a player of Chauncey Billups' caliber. But that's his ceiling (and it's not a bad thing either). He'll never be as good as Chris Paul or Deron Williams, who will be the point guard standards for the next 10 years. Beasley is going to be a beast - he may have his defensive problems, but you can teach a guy defense. You can't teach the offensive game this kid has. I must emphasize that this is not intended to be a slight of Derrick Rose, I do believe he will be a good, top-10 point guard in the NBA. But Beasley is the best player coming out. If Durant was in this year's draft, no one would consider taking anyone but him - the only reason he went 2nd last year was because a franchise center was available (and those are the hardest to come by). And Beasley had a better year than Durant did last year! Why is no one mentioning this?!? I feel like everyone is taking crazy pills!

-All the talk about O.J. Mayo going in the top-two is hogwash and a waste of valuable internet space and ink. O.J. Mayo is going 3rd, at best. Rose-Beasley or Beasley-Rose are the only possible 1-2 pick combinations. That's it. Mark it 8, Dude. But Beasley and Rose going before him might be the best thing for him - he's been billed as the best player of this group since he was about 6 years old, so it will a nice, humbling experience for him, and for someone who's had approximately zero humbling experiences in his life, this could be a big moment in Mayo's life. Slipping even further will give him the "prove-everyone-wrong" chip on his shoulder. And there's nothing like a respect slight to motivate an athlete.

-For all the teams drafting in the lottery portion of this draft and needing a point guard/shooting guard: sucks to be you. Between Bayless, Westbrook, Gordon, Augustin & Chalmers, I don't see one star in the group nor does any one of them jump out as being much better than any of the others, but due to the lack of guards in this draft, they're all going to get picked way higher than they should. For each one of these five that becomes a good player, another one will bust out. But it's a complete crapshoot on which ones will make it and which ones won't.

-Danilo Gallinari ... I don't know. I think he could be good. On one hand, he could be the next Nowitzki that everyone's been trying to draft for the last 10 years (seriously, every international player should be paying Nowitzki a fee for opening the floodgates). On the other, he could end up being another guy like his countryman Bargnani, or worse, the imfamous Darko Milicic. There's no telling. But I hear he's a great shooter when guarded by a chair. How come they don't just have someone stand out near him with his hand up during these stupid workouts? Even if the hand is only goes up to his chin, that has to be a better example of a guy shooting than him shooting over a chair, right?

-Kevin Love - I'd be a lot more comfortable if he were 7' tall or if he were a leaper, but the kid can play the game. You don't average 17.5 & 10.6 in the Pac-10 unless you can play. For reference, see Powe, Leon. Another big from the Pac-10: Brook Lopez (but not his brother, Sideshow Bob). 19.2 & 8.2 in the Pac-10. And he's 7'1. Both are worth the gamble, but the fans of the team that drafts them shouldn't expect an All-Star.

-The biggest steal of the draft will be: Brandon Rush. I can't believe teams aren't going crazy for him. He's built like Paul Pierce (and went to KU as well). He can't score like Pierce can (but very few can), but he has similiar skills. He also can step right in and be a top-notch defender. It's probably good that he's projected mid-to-late first round, so he'll go to a decent team where he can step in and be an important role player right away and not expected to do too much. And with some seasoning, he could be a top-notch 3rd banana for a championship team someday.

-Other Guys I Like & I Believe Are Destined For Good to Great Things: Joe Alexander, Marreese Speights, Donte Greene, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee, D.J. White, Jason Thompson & Bill Walker. Any one of these guys landing on the Celtics would be A-OK with me (although Alexander, Speights & Greene will be long gone - I'm still holding out for CDR to slip).

-Bust Alert: Kosta Koufos, Darrell Arthur, Robin Lopez (my one wish is that the Cavs draft him - he and Varajeo end up on the same team, hilarious!), J.J. Hickson, DeAndre Jordan, Roy Hibbert, Ryan Anderson and all international players except Gallinari.

-Super-duper Bust Alert: Anthony Randolph. This guy reeks of everything that is wrong with the draft. He's really "long" and "athletic." Let's not forget a few facts though. One, he's 6'10 but only 197 pounds. I don't really believe in BMI as a proper gauge of one's health, but he's dangerous close to being considered underweight - and athletes are usually considered overweight by BMI standards because BMI doesn't account for muscle mass, which he apparently has none of. Two, he shot 46.4% from the floor last year in college. For a big man, that's terrible, especially considering most of his shots were taken within 12 feet of the hoop. Practically every other big man prospect shot over 50% from the floor. Three, he's a terrible foul shooter. Four, Turnovers! 3 TOs per game last year. That's awful. And finally, five, this guy's only upside is his tremendous upside potential. Yet some dumb GM will take him in the top-10 or top-15. He should be fired immediately and public humiliated somehow for his ineptitude. I promise to make fun of the GM that selects him repeatedly and without mercy. It's too bad Isiah isn't around anymore to take him sixth and further destroy the Knicks.

I'll be back Friday with my draft recap, as I will attempt to keep a running diary of this event. One more thought - look out for Danny Ainge picking for the C's with the last pick in the first round, which is essentially the 1st pick of the 2nd round, which is right in Ainge's wheelhouse. He's scored some fantastic 2nd-rounders in recent years: Gabe Pruitt (#32, 2007, look out for him next year). Glen "Big Baby" Davis (#35, 2007), Leon "Pow" Powe (#49, 2006) & Ryan Gomes (#50, 2005). The last pick in the 1st round could be a good spot to steal a solid collegiate player that has slid because of god-knows-what but should not have.

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